October forecast: 2nd wettest month of the year coming

NOTE: This article is an update from the story we first wrote based on the preliminary October outlook. This article now includes the Sept. 30 version of the October forecast.

AUSTIN (KXAN) -- Typically, fall is our second wettest season and October is our second wettest month. That may not be the case this year based on the final monthly outlook just released by the Climate Prediction Center on Sept. 30.

The rainfall outlook for October leans heavily in the "drier than normal" category, with all of Texas expecting less rain than normal.

October rain forecast (CPC)

So far, September has started very warm and signs point toward October continuing the "warmer than normal" trend deeper into meteorological fall.

October temperature forecast (CPC)

What’s normal in October?

Normally, October is a wet month falling right in the middle of our second “wet season” which runs from September through November.

OUR 2ND RAINY SEASON IS STARTING IN CENTRAL TEXAS

• Average high Oct. 1: 87º
• Average high Oct. 31: 77º
• Average low Oct. 1: 66º
• Average low Oct. 31: 56º
• 6th warmest month of the year
• Average rainfall: 3.91″ (second-wettest month of the year)

What should we expect for the rest of the year?

The three-month outlook takes us through October, November and December. Much of the expectations for October continue through the rest of 2025 with drier-than-normal conditions as the most likely outcome.

Three-month rainfall forecast (CPC)

The rest of 2025 also leans heavily warmer than normal, but that doesn't mean we won't have some occasional colder periods too.

Three month temperature outlook (CPC)

Drought worsening

Over the last four months, we've seen dramatic improvement in drought, mostly thanks to historic rainfall in early July. By mid-July we were almost drought-free in Central Texas. Since then, persistent dry weather has meant that drought has actually started worsening southeast of Austin.

Drought 4 months ago compared to now

Unfortunately, the latest drought outlook points to drought worsening throughout Central Texas and Texas as a whole.

Drought forecast for the next few months (CPC)

Even during periods of expected dry weather, it just takes one unusual pattern to bring significant rain and flash flooding to Central Texas. Stay with the First Warning Weather Team as we guide you through our second rainy season and into winter.